اتوار، 29 جون، 2025
A Triangle of Espionage in South Asia
RAW, NDS, and Mossad: A Triangle of Espionage in South Asia
By: Dilpazir Ahmad Janjua
Espionage has long replaced conventional war as the preferred method of exerting geopolitical pressure. In the shifting sands of South Asia and the Greater Middle East, the collaboration between India’s Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) and Afghanistan’s intelligence services—primarily the now-defunct National Directorate of Security (NDS)—has evolved into a potent alliance aimed at sabotage operations, proxy warfare, and regional destabilization.
Behind the scenes of this axis, Israel’s Mossad appears increasingly aligned, offering technical expertise, digital tools, and ideological motivation—especially when it comes to countering Muslim-majority nations like Pakistan and Iran.
RAW and NDS: A Symbiotic Intelligence Alliance
RAW (Research & Analysis Wing)
India’s premier external intelligence agency, RAW, has a mandate for:
Cross-border operations
Political destabilization
Counter-terrorism surveillance (with a regional bias against Pakistan)
NDS (Afghanistan’s National Directorate of Security)
Before the Taliban takeover in 2021, the NDS was:
Trained and funded largely by the CIA and India
Known for its deep hostility toward the Taliban and Pakistan
Often used to support anti-Pakistan elements like TTP (Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan) and BLA (Baloch Liberation Army)
Between 2014 and 2021, RAW-NDS coordination intensified dramatically, with joint training, intelligence sharing, and operational collaboration—particularly in regions bordering Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
Real Incidents of RAW–NDS Sabotage Operations
1. Kulbhushan Jadhav Case (2016)
Captured by Pakistani authorities in Balochistan, Jadhav was a RAW officer using Iran and Afghanistan as staging grounds for covert operations.
He admitted involvement in:
Fueling Baloch separatism
Funding terror groups like BLA
Planning attacks on Pakistan’s infrastructure
His travel records confirm RAW-NDS cooperation, with movements through Kandahar, Herat, and Chabahar.
APS School Attack (2014): TTP Nexus
Pakistani investigations and intelligence reports have repeatedly suggested that RAW and NDS provided indirect support to TTP militants via safe havens and logistical facilitation.
While India denies the link, captured TTP commanders have claimed RAW officers operated safehouses in Jalalabad and Spin Boldak, facilitating attacks like the Army Public School massacre in Peshawar (over 150 killed, mostly children).
Gwadar and Chinese Workers Targeted (2018–2020)
A wave of attacks on Chinese engineers and CPEC routes in Balochistan were traced to BLA militants, who reportedly received training and explosives through Afghan territory.
Intercepts suggested NDS officers worked with RAW handlers to fund these missions — with anti-China objectives aligning all three players: India, Afghanistan (pre-2021), and Israel.
Chabahar Bombing Plot (Foiled in 2019)
Iran’s intelligence agencies unearthed a RAW-linked cell in Chabahar (on Iranian soil) planning attacks in Zahedan and Pakistani border areas.
The suspects had traveled from Afghanistan via Nimruz province, where NDS reportedly provided them safe corridors.
The Role of Ideology and Strategic Alignment
RAW’s Objectives:
Undermine Pakistan’s global image by linking it with terrorism.
Destabilize Balochistan to disrupt China’s CPEC corridor.
Use Afghan soil as a buffer to encircle and pressure Pakistan and Iran.
NDS’s Incentive:
Enmity with Taliban (who had support from Pakistan).
Opportunity to internationalize Afghan grievances against Pakistani influence.
Support from India in weapons, training, and intelligence tools.
Mossad’s Entry:
Israel, through covert channels, has offered cyber training and digital surveillance support to both RAW and (unofficially) to NDS before 2021.
Shared interest in:
Weakening Muslim-majority strategic players (Pakistan, Iran)
Monitoring Shia and Sunni networks
Countering China’s expansion in the region
Triangular Cooperation: RAW–NDS–Mossad
Though never officially admitted, credible intelligence leaks and independent investigations have revealed:
Joint workshops on cyber warfare attended by Indian and Israeli contractors.
Digital surveillance systems used by NDS were procured via Indian and Israeli firms—including software licensed from Tel Aviv tech startups.
After 2017, some Baloch separatist figures received Israeli visas for conferences in Europe — promoted by Indian lobbying groups.
Strategic Goal:
Create a narrative of “liberation movements”, Islamic extremism spillover, and regional instability, all pinned on Pakistan — with support from both Afghan intelligence and Israeli media tools.
Post-2021: Taliban Takeover and Collapse of NDS
The fall of Kabul in 2021 disrupted this triangle:
NDS dissolved, but its assets and officers remain in contact with foreign handlers.
RAW lost ground access to Balochistan from Afghanistan, shifting focus to Iranian corridors and Gulf-based operatives.
Israel’s digital tools remain in circulation, with remote access still a possibility via third-party firms or ex-Afghan networks.
Implications for Regional Security
Pakistan:
Faces asymmetric warfare from foreign-funded separatists.
Must strengthen border intelligence, especially on Western frontiers.
Needs diplomatic outreach to Iran and Taliban to shut down RAW remnants.
Iran:
Must guard against Israeli and Indian manipulation of dissident groups in Sistan-Balochistan.
Should enhance IRGC border monitoring in Chabahar and Mirjaveh.
China:
Increasingly concerned about RAW-backed sabotage on CPEC projects.
Has boosted its security presence in Gwadar and along transport routes.
Conclusion: A Dangerous Game of Shadows
The RAW–NDS–Mossad triangle, whether fully formalized or loosely coordinated, represents a new model of multi-layered espionage: ideology, cyber power, and proxy violence fused into one.
What connects them all is not just geopolitical strategy, but an ideological hostility toward Pakistan, Iran, and the Islamic world’s strategic cohesion.
The war today is not fought with armies — it’s fought with alliances, insurgents, and code.
The May 2025 Air Battle — Pakistan’s Strategic Triumph and the Lessons for the World
Title: The May 2025 Air Battle — Pakistan’s Strategic Triumph and the Lessons for the World
By: Dilpazir Ahmad Janjua
The dates of May 7 and 8, 2025, have now become a permanent chapter not only in South Asian military history but in global defense studies. What unfolded in the skies over the Line of Control (LoC) and adjoining regions was not just a routine skirmish between two nuclear-armed neighbors, Pakistan and India, but a defining moment in the evolution of modern aerial combat — a moment that defense analysts from Washington to Moscow and Beijing to Tel Aviv are still dissecting.
The Background: A Region on the Brink
Tensions between India and Pakistan had been simmering for months leading up to May 2025. The Kashmir dispute remained unresolved, border ceasefire violations were routine, and political rhetoric on both sides was heating up. What finally triggered the aerial engagement was a series of alleged Indian drone incursions into Pakistani territory along the Neelum Valley in late April 2025, followed by the downing of an Indian Army reconnaissance helicopter near Tatta Pani by Pakistani forces on May 2.
In response, India launched a large-scale aerial operation along the LoC on the night of May 7, aimed at targeting what it claimed were "terror launchpads" — a familiar but unproven narrative reminiscent of the Balakot incident of 2019.
But unlike 2019, this time Pakistan was not caught by surprise.
The Air Battle Unfolds: Precision, Patience, and Professionalism
As Indian jets, including Su-30MKIs, Rafales, Mirage 2000s, and MiG-29s, crossed into contested airspace, they were met with a calculated, technologically superior, and highly coordinated response from the Pakistan Air Force (PAF).
Relying on their latest JF-17 Block III Thunder jets — equipped with cutting-edge Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radars, infrared tracking systems, and Chinese-made PL-15 BVR (Beyond Visual Range) missiles — the PAF executed what defense experts now call a "Zero Losses Air Superiority Operation."
Within minutes, PAF fighters had locked onto six Indian jets at distances exceeding 100 kilometers. Despite India's reliance on Spectra defense systems and electronic jamming aircraft, Pakistani pilots achieved clean missile hits:
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2 Su-30MKIs shot down near Bhimber sector
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2 Rafales destroyed over Poonch
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1 Mirage 2000 crashed in Indian territory near Jammu
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1 MiG-29 downed near Rajouri
Global Shockwaves and India's Embarrassment
The losses were not only material but symbolic. The Rafales, once paraded by India as the game-changing asset in South Asia, were proven vulnerable. The Su-30MKIs, considered India’s frontline air dominance fighters, failed to outmatch Pakistan's air defense matrix.
Adding insult to injury, Indian attempts at electronic warfare — including jamming PAF communications and radars — were foiled by Pakistani counter-electronic warfare teams operating from ground installations near Muzaffarabad and advanced AWACS (Airborne Warning and Control System) aircraft in the air.
Within 24 hours, images and videos emerged of burning Indian jet wreckage, while PAF jets returned safely to their bases — mission accomplished, with zero Pakistani losses.
Real Incidents that Set the Stage
It is important to note that this operation did not happen in isolation. It was the result of years of preparation, learning, and upgrades after key incidents:
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Balakot 2019: When Indian jets briefly crossed into Pakistani airspace, dropped payloads without hitting any significant targets, and faced an immediate response where PAF shot down an Indian MiG-21 and captured Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman, the world witnessed Pakistan’s defensive readiness. But PAF knew it could not remain complacent.
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Indian Drone Intrusions 2020-2024: Repeated Indian drone activities along the LoC, including the downing of multiple quadcopters by Pakistan Army troops, exposed the increasing use of unmanned surveillance by India.
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Chinese-Pakistani Defense Cooperation: Over the last five years, Pakistan accelerated its collaboration with China, acquiring JF-17 Block III jets, HQ-9B air defense systems, and BVR missile capabilities — a critical factor in the 2025 victory.
International Recognition: From Conflict to Curriculum
Perhaps the most significant outcome of this battle was not military but academic. On June 26, 2025, the Royal Thai Air Force hosted an international defense seminar titled:
“May 7-8, 2025: A Case Study in Modern Air Combat — Lessons from the Indo-Pak Conflict.”
Defense delegations from the United States, China, Russia, France, Israel, Turkey, and UAE attended. Military experts unanimously recognized the operation as a textbook example of modern air superiority, especially in BVR warfare.
Global defense think tanks, including RAND Corporation, Jane’s Defence Weekly, and China’s PLA National Defence University, included this battle in their updated military doctrines and training modules.
The Lessons: Technology is Nothing Without Training and Nerves
Despite India's superior military budget and extensive acquisitions, the battle underscored timeless principles:
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Superior technology means little without operational readiness.
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Electronic warfare alone cannot overcome disciplined, well-trained pilots.
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Real-time decision-making and control of the electromagnetic spectrum are critical.
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Homegrown platforms like the JF-17 Thunder, when properly integrated, can outperform more expensive jets.
Conclusion: A New Strategic Balance
Pakistan's triumph in May 2025 reshaped the strategic calculus of South Asia. More importantly, it silenced doubts over the capabilities of Pakistan’s defense industry, air force leadership, and the combat spirit of its fighter pilots — the Shahins of Pakistan.
For Pakistan, this victory was not just about downing enemy jets but sending a clear message:
When faith, technology, and national resolve unite, no adversary — however well-armed — is invincible.
The skies of South Asia witnessed not only dogfights and missile trails but the resurgence of Pakistan's strategic confidence — and the world is still taking notes.