The arrest of alleged Indian spies in Iran has triggered quiet ripples across West Asia’s diplomatic landscape. While governments are yet to respond formally, the implications of these events could be significant — not just for New Delhi’s relations with Tehran, but for the millions of Indian workers spread across the Middle East.
At the heart of the matter is a sensitive accusation: India, potentially in coordination with Israeli intelligence services, is using its presence in the region to gather intelligence against Iranian assets. Iran, locked in a silent war of attrition with Israel, views such activity as a threat to its sovereignty — and when such activity is traced to Indian nationals, alarm bells ring.
Kulbhushan Jadhav Revisited?
This isn’t the first time India’s intelligence activities have drawn controversy in the region. In 2016, Pakistan arrested Kulbhushan Jadhav, a former Indian Navy officer, claiming he was a RAW operative using Iranian soil to infiltrate Balochistan. Though India denied these claims, Iran privately confirmed to Pakistan that Jadhav had entered from its territory — an admission that damaged bilateral trust.
In the years since, Iran has arrested multiple foreign-linked operatives, often tied to Mossad. Regional security sources claim that some of these networks had indirect or logistical links to Indian nationals, particularly in cyber, telecom, or port-based operations.
A Vulnerable Labor Force
What does this mean for Indian workers in the Gulf?
With over 8 million Indian expatriates working across the Middle East — including in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Oman, Qatar, and even Iran — any diplomatic crisis has real-world consequences. If espionage allegations gain traction, Indian nationals working in sensitive sectors like energy, ports, infrastructure, or IT could be subject to new scrutiny.
Iran itself hosts Indian engineers, port staff (notably at Chabahar), and oil sector workers. If Tehran sees New Delhi as compromising its national security, visa restrictions, project delays, or even deportations are possible — especially if domestic pressures mount.
Gulf States May Watch Closely
While Iran may be directly impacted, the wider Gulf region won’t remain unaffected. Many Gulf countries host large Shia populations, maintain careful balances with Tehran, and increasingly question India's alignment with Israel.
In a region where sectarian politics shape foreign policy, any indication that India is working against Shia interests or collaborating with Israel against Iran could spark religious and political backlash. While governments may not act overtly, pressure from clerics, activists, or the public could lead to increased vetting of Indian workers, especially in high-trust sectors.
We've seen parallels before. After Saudi Arabia labeled Hezbollah a terrorist group in 2016, Shia workers from Lebanon and Iraq faced quiet blacklisting across the Gulf. In Turkey, post-2016 coup crackdowns led to Turkish nationals being detained or expelled in several Arab states on suspicion of Gulenist ties.
Could Indian workers face similar pressures in a worst-case scenario?
Strategic Overreach?
India’s increasing intimacy with Israel, particularly in the intelligence domain, is well-documented. Cyber cooperation, facial recognition systems, drone technologies, and even counter-terror training are being exchanged — and operational reach is expanding.
But every expansion brings exposure. In a region as volatile and politically fragmented as West Asia, perceived overreach can backfire. India has long enjoyed goodwill in the Muslim world, seen as a balanced, secular democracy with strong historical and cultural ties. That image is slowly shifting.
If New Delhi is seen as a silent partner in covert operations targeting Iran or its allies, the impact could go beyond diplomacy — it could affect trade, investments, pilgrimages, and most critically, the security of Indian nationals abroad.
Final Thought
Intelligence operations are built on stealth. But when they go public, consequences are swift and far-reaching. If India is indeed stretching its strategic ambitions into Iran through covert means, it must prepare for the blowback — and not just at the diplomatic level.
For the millions of Indians living and working in the Gulf, the cost of a spy scandal could be more than embarrassment — it could be existential.
